The other headline The Times could have given its poll

Welcome to this week’s edition, a return to this newsletter’s traditional content - take a media report on a poll, pull it apart and see what truth lies within. This time, it’s The Times in the spotlight.

But first a warm welcome to the big burst of new subscribers in the last week, taking this newsletter comfortably through the 3,000 readers mark. Onwards to the next arbitrary number! Special thanks too to the kind readers who had forwarded a copy to their friends/colleagues/boss/client/sworn enemy and helped make that happen.

As ever, if you have any feedback or questions prompted by what follows, or spotted some other recent polling you’d like to see covered, just hit reply. I personally read every response.

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What The Times said, and what its poll really said

“Undecided millions lean towards Rishi Sunak, poll suggests” ran a headline in The Times this week.

But what did the poll really say?

We can clear out of the way a batch of basic issues - it was a poll from a reputable pollster, YouGov,* carried out recently and with reasonably worded questions.

The issue comes with the interpretation of these numbers:

So yes, it’s true that among undecided voters, Sunak is more popular than Starmer on the best Prime Minister question.

But, but, but.

First but: Sunak is only on 21%. Four in five undecideds didn’t pick Sunak, which makes the headline’s use of “lean towards” somewhat optimistic.

Second but: these undecided voters leaned Conservative in 2019. (Around 4 in 10 voted Conservative and one in eight Labour, with many not voting.) So to be ahead 21%-8% is pretty underwhelming. That’s half, or less, of 2019 Conservatives who are now don’t know picking Sunak as best PM.

Third but: these are undecided voters. Yet the polls have consistently been showing the sort of direct switching from Conservatives to Labour, in particular, that is sufficient to remove the Conservatives from power. Moreover, a good chunk of the don’t knows didn’t vote last time and so may well not next time either. Don’t knows might save the Conservatives from disaster, but not from defeat.

Four out of five don’t knows didn’t pick Sunak. If that’s the best source of hope for the Conservatives then, much like their small recent rise in national voting intention percentages, it’s a sign of how grim things are for them in the polls that this is considered grounds for hope.

Or to summarise:

• What The Times headline said: Undecided millions lean towards Rishi Sunak

• What The Times headline could also have said: Undecided millions deliver humiliating rebuff to Rishi Sunak

*Read this before deploying conspiracy theories about YouGov.

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National voting intention polls

Here’s the latest from each currently active pollster:

For more details and updates through the week, see my daily updated table here.

Last week’s edition

Perhaps the most over-looked poll finding.

Know other people interested in political polling?

Verdicts on that controversial Labour advert, and other insights from this week’s polling…